SMU Election Project Alabama

Alabama, same ol' red

2008-11-06T21:40:00.000-08:00

Alabama's nine electoral votes went to John McCain, as predicted. 60.4% of the vote, or 1,263,741 votes, went to McCain and %38.8 of the vote, or 811,510 votes went to Obama. 0.7% of the vote, or 15,892 votes, went to other candidates. Record numbers of voters turned out on election day, at least 2 million. State officials estimate 79 to 81% voter turnout, which is also unprecedented.

Republican Jeff Sessions easily won a third term. Although the state put its power behind McCain, Democrats gained ground in some key areas. For the first time since the civil rights era, Jefferson County voted Democratic for president, supporting Obama with 53% of their vote. Jefferson includes Birmingham and is the most populous county in the state.

A close race was between Democrat Deborah Bell Paseur and Republican Greg Shaw for the state Supreme Court. Shaw was declared the winner on Wednesday morning with a nearly complete vote count, but Paseur is considering a recount. Paseur would need to pick up nearly 4,200 votes among the uncounted to trigger an automatic recall. Shaw's campaign says this is extremely unlikely and that the race is over. As of Wednesday morning, the race for Alabama's Public Service Commission was also too close to call. Both the Democratic candidate and Republican candidate are female, so the state's utilities board will become all female no matter the outcome. If Democrat former Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley wins, the board will be all Democratic, too.

Although Alabama went to McCain, tried and true civil rights activists watched eagerly and emotionally as Obama was declared the winner and the first Black president of the United States. James Armstrong, 85, is a Birmingham barber and civil rights foot soldier who carried the American flag at the head of the 1965 Selma-to-Montgomery Voting Rights march. These are people that appreciate more than most the significance of Obama's victory. "I was wide awake at 1 and 3 and I got up at 5," Armstrong said. "I was thinking about the things Martin would say. All those speeches came to me." Many who recall the struggle for civil rights in Alabama were emotional, including Willie Mae Billingsley, one of the first blacks allowed to vote in Marion, in Perry County.

One day to go - Alabama will vote McCain

2008-11-03T09:44:00.000-08:00

While Alabama has seen record numbers of new voters, including the youth and African Americans who tend to vote Democratic, the state's nine electoral votes will go to Republican candidate John McCain by substantial margins. A recent SurveyUSA poll shows that McCain leads in Alabama with 61% support. Republican Senator Jeff Sessions is also expected to be reelected by wide margins. During this election, Alabama Democrats have been active and worked hard, but little attention has come from the Obama campaign because Alabama is relegated to the red state category, and it will fulfill that expectation tomorrow.

Alabama's voter registration closed

2008-10-27T12:41:00.000-07:00

As of Friday last week, voter registration is finally closed in Alabama. State rolls have swelled to record breaking size, and 80% of the state's registered voters are expected to vote in this election. Like everyone else, Alabama voters are concerned about the economy. In other states, this concern has boosted Obama's campaign, but Alabama is still strongly conservative. For one, it looks like it takes more than a bad economy to sway many Alabama voters Democratic. Furthermore, the Obama campaign has not been present in Alabama as it has been in Michigan, for example. Alabama just doesn't get the same kind of campaign attention as other states that have a better chance of turning blue for Obama.

However, several Alabama papers have now endorsed Senator Obama for President, including the Montgomery Advertiser and the Birmingham News.

Alabama will vote McCain in 10 days

2008-10-23T22:11:00.000-07:00

Alabama, a conservative Southern state, is expected to send it's nine electoral votes to John McCain.

Recent polls show John McCain at 55 to 62% support. The most recent listed at Real Clear Politics, an AEA/Capital Survey poll from early October, has McCain leading with 57% support to Obama's 33%.

Alabama is a strongly conservative state with a history of electing Republicans to national office. Many Democrats who are elected in Alabama are "conservative Democrats." The Birmingham Times reports today that based on a recent state poll most voters will vote for McCain, but they also expect Obama to win the election. 51% of voters polled cited the economy as the number one issue in the election.

In Alabama, millions of voters and registration is still open

2008-10-21T09:21:00.000-07:00

It seems that all states are preparing for or already dealing with huge crowds of voters for this election. In Alabama, it is no different. Registration levels have hit a record of nearly 3 million people, and people can continue to register until this Friday. Registration data shows a surge is registration by young (18-24 yrs old), Hispanic, and black people. Since December 2007, the registration of black voters jumped 12 percent and Hispanic voters 45 percent. Could this narrow the race for McCain? It might narrow the race, but McCain still holds a solid lead in conservative Alabama.

George Wallace enters the political discussion

2008-10-16T16:36:00.000-07:00

Alabama came up briefly in last night's final presidential debate through former governor and segregationist extraordinaire George Wallace and Lilly Ledbetter of the Supreme Court case on employment discrimination. McCain accused Obama of not refuting statements made by Representative John Lewis associating McCain and Palin with George Wallace (Obama's campaign had indeed made a statement in opposition to those views). Obama cited the Ledbetter case with regard to women's rights in the workplace. Ledbetter lived and worked in Alabama.

The Swamp provides interesting insight into John Lewis' statement, defending his judgement as an actor in the Civil Rights Movement who faced extreme human hatred and violence. Although the Obama campaign distanced itself from the worst of Lewis' remarks, comparison of McCain and Palin to Wallace, they also said that Lewis was right to criticize the incendiary accusations that have been coming from the Republican campaign.

Confusion over which crimes prohibit voting in Alabama

2008-10-04T16:25:00.000-07:00

The state of Alabama is trying to sort out a confusing and potentially discriminatory situation over which crimes block a person from voting in the state. Republican Gov. Bob Riley's office compiled a list of felony crimes that disallowed voting, but the list included hundreds of crimes that were previously not included to refuse felons their right to vote. Court administrators say that the list is "overly broad" and that the list has been inappropriately used for months by county registrars to block felon voter registration. A court placed the Secretary of State in charge of election issues, in place of Governor Riley, and they are trying to remedy the problem before Election Day, but there is no way to know how many people were told they could not register and will be discouraged from trying again.

On a similar note, I have to add that while conducting a voter registration drive in Dallas, recently, at a light rail station, we encountered two individuals who said they could not register because they were felons. Texas state law says that after fully completing a sentence, felons may register to vote, but these two had been explicitly told when they left prison that they could not register to vote ever again. This is a terrible injustice to people who have served the time sentenced to them, and are supposed to be able to re-enter society anew. Hopefully Alabama will be able to sort out its mistakes.

GOTV in prison!

2008-09-20T09:12:00.000-07:00

FYI, GOTV is Get Out The Vote...

Like many states, Alabama guarantees the right to vote by absentee ballot to people in prison. Rev. Kenny Glasgow and "a coalition of concerned citizens" conducted a voter registration drive for prisoners last week. Rev. Glasgow's organization is The Ordinary People's Society (TOPS).

The effort was publicly opposed by the Alabama Republican Party, who claimed it provided opportunity for voter fraud. Rev. Glasgow has responded that the effort is nonpartisan and that they are open to being monitored. After the Alabama GOP complained to the Prison Commissioner, the effort was stopped, claiming that a line should be drawn between convicts and the community.

Rev. Glasgow claims that up to 50,000 people have been denied their right to vote or believe they do not have the right. Some felonies allow voter registration and others (felonies of "moral turpitude") do not and many do not understand or know of the distinction.

An important aspect of this conflict is the high proportion of African Americans in prison in Alabama. If more of these people are registered to vote it could prove damaging to Republicans in the election.

More voters!

2008-09-14T20:20:00.000-07:00

The Tuscaloosa News reports that since the historic presidential primary in February, Alabama has seen a 1.9% increase in registered voters. Speculation suggests that this motivation is largely due to Obama's unprecedented campaign, but Alabama does not have party registration and David Lanoue, chairman of the political science department at the University of Alabama, has no reason to believe that Alabama will break its tradition of voting for the Republican ticket.

Alabama - strong for McCain

2008-09-14T18:00:00.001-07:00

Alabama is leaning strongly for John McCain. A Capital Research Survey Poll for Sept. 3 through Sept. 9, 2008 put McCain at 55% and Obama at 35%. Alabama native Representative Bob Barr will be listed as an Independent on the Alabama ballot, and will be running as a Libertarian in other states. Despite his conservative views on many issues, his support is only at 1% and does not seem to be damaging McCain's lead at all.

In 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 the state voted Republican by at least 47%, and by 62.5% in 2004. Alabama has a Republican governor and two Republican senators, and in 2006 Alabama saw high participation rates among Republicans.

Key issues in Alabama are cultural/religious, and tax-focused. Initiatives to raise taxes have met widespread opposition in the state. A woman named Vivian Figures is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Sessions, and this has been called "republican favored" by the website cqpolitics.com.

It is interesting that in the same poll cited above, 62% of people said that Joe Biden would be qualified to serve as president if needed, and 56% said that Sarah Palin would be qualified. If the Obama campaign works extremely hard to build on this perception of the vice presidential candidates' experience, they might be able to catch up to McCain. Alabama does have a strong Democratic coalition of blacks and poor whites, but in the recent past they have not triumphed in state or national politics.

Introduction to Alabama Politics

2008-09-13T15:46:00.000-07:00

Alabama has a complex history. It was the host of the first Confederate Congress where Jefferson Davis became president of the Confederacy, and the birthplace of the modern Civil Rights Movement. Alabama was once one of the country's most Democratic states but is now one of the most Republican, however there is still considerable competition. The Democratic Party's base is made up of the large Black minority and the well-organized teachers' union and trial lawyers. The Republican's base is made up of white evangelical Protestants, small business owners, and a large group of wealthy young families that tend to live in the suburbs of Alabama's cities.

Alabama has 9 electoral votes.